The Dollar weakened against major currencies overnight on concerns the Federal Reserve may signal after its meeting on Tuesday that U.S. interest rates, which have largely supported the U.S. currency this year, are getting near a top. There is more uncertainty than usual over the accompanying statement. In the minutes of the November 1 Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, all FOMC members saw the need to keep raising rates but said they must be increasingly sensitive to data. The Fed minutes said that the FOMC would need to change its statement language “before long”. The market is speculating that the Fed is likely to change language at tomorrow''s policy meeting, removing key wording indicating policy remains accommodative and that policy accommodation can continue to be removed at a measured pace. US advance retail sales is also due out later today in the States. Total retail sales are expected to rise by 0.4%, resulting in a rise in annual growth to 5.8% from 5.5%. The market ignored the US budget deficit which widened to US$83.06 billion in November, above expectations of 76 billion.

The Euro rallied from 1.1794 to a 5 week high of 1.1981, before closing at 1.1945 in New York. The Euro benefited from dollar weakness across the board as the market speculated the Fed is coming to an end of its interest rate hikes.

The move higher in Euro has confirmed a clear breach of the trendline resistance that was located at 1.1839. This sets the scene for a climb towards 1.2046, the 76.4% retracement of the decline from 1.2170 - 1.1644 while also setting the scene for gains towards 1.2170, the Oct 27 high. Support has been defined at 1.1768, Dec 9 low with 1.1900 now offering initial support.

The Dollar traded down against the major currencies on Friday night despite stronger than expected US consumer sentiment data. The University of Michigan preliminary hearing was posted at 88.7 for December, up from 81.6 the previous month and above the expectation of 85.0. The level is now close to the levels seen before the US hurricanes hit. The US consumer continues to be supported by the strong labour market and mortgage rates that remain low on an historical basis. In other markets, US treasuries eased as traders squared positions ahead of Tuesday’s Federal Reserve meeting. US sharemarkets posted modest gains as investors were comforted by a 2% fall in the oil price. Crude oil was lower as investors took profit ahead of the OPEC oil ministers meeting.


The Euro traded in a range of 1.1767 to 1.1835. Weak French industrial production figures, where industrial output for October fell 2.5%, against expectations of 0.2% increase. This caused Euro to trade down from 1.1800 to 1.1769. This data could suggest that ECB will be cautious in hiking interest rates in the coming months. However, this was short-lived as Euro traded back above 1.1800 to close at 1.1805 in the New York session.

The month-long trading range continues to keep this pair trapped in tight ranges. For the near run, the recovery from the Dec 2 low at 1.1666 has room toward 1.1903 (Nov 28 high), but only a move above there would put the case for an eventual downside move on hold. On the flipside, a break of 1.1760 (61.8% of the 1.1702 to 1.1853 rally) would likely fuel a move toward the lower end of the trading, with supports there at 1.1702 (Dec 7 low), 1.1666 (Dec 2 low) and 1.1644 (Nov 15 low).

The Dollar slumped against the major currencies early in the week due to order flows and a host of technical factors such as end of month profit-taking and speculative short-covering. The Dollar spent the rest of the week strengthening against the Euro, CHF & Yen but was unable to pare back losses versus the Cable and Aussie. Stronger than expected economic data out of the States continues to assist the greenback. However, given the strength of the data one can argue that the dollar should have performed better. As expected the ECB raised rates by 25 basis points but the Euro actually fell. The reason for the fall was when ECB President Trichet said during his press conference that there was no plan for further tightening. In Japan, loose monetary conditions relative to economic conditions is manifesting itself in a weak exchange rate and a strong stock market. The Pound was the big performer last week as it rallied strongly. A Bank of England policy maker said there was no rush to move UK interest. The Aussie shrugged off a worse than expected current account deficit to rally versus the dollar. Aussie continues to benefit from its yield advantage, strong base metals and gold which soared to 23 year highs.

Risks to global growth have shown no signs of materializing. This makes it difficult to come to anything other than a rather upbeat conclusion about the path of the global economy at present. Data releases out of the States and Eurozone is expected to reinforce healthy growth in the global economy.

Euro continues to trade in a volatile 1.1650 to 1.1850 range. The lack of follow-through on both ends has the market perplexed. A decisive break of 1.1680 would signal a test of the downside towards 1.1586, the 38.2% retracement of the broad 0.8227 to 0.3663 advance. A decisive break of the congestion zone at 1.1903 (Oct 3 low) to 1.1907 (50% retracement of 1.2170 to 1.1644) is required to put doubt in the ability of the short-term bear trend's ability to eventually post a new trend low.

The Dollar was moderately firmer against the major currencies overnight. At the absence of first tier data, it seems to be a continuation of positive dollar sentiment. Economic data was limited to weekly mortgage applications purchase index, which was stronger than expected, and the Fed’s consumer credit for October, which was weaker than expected. In other news, Fed Chairman Greenspan wrote a letter to the Joint Economic Committee on November 28 which was published yesterday. Greenspan states, in the letter, that it’s impossible to know with certainty when the neutral interest rate will be reached. Looking ahead, US data today is limited to initial jobless claims with the market forecasting 317k in new filings.

The Euro weakened from 1.1801 in the London session to a low of 1.1715 in New York, before closing at 1.1720. One of the reasons is the widely expected Federal Reserve rate hike on 13dec; on the other hand, ECB executive, Lorenzo Bini, stated today that they are not planning to follow the Fed’s strategy.

A break of either 1.1820 high or Dec 2's 1.1661 low is now required to initiate the next directional move with 1.1820 seen as the catalyst for extended gains towards 1.1903. On the downside 1.1661 is defined as the trigger for a move to 1.1586, the 38.2% retracement of the major 0.8227 to 1.3663 advance.
Have a nice trading day bro....

The Dollar weakened against the major currencies overnight due to market positioning and technically driven trade. Data released overnight had little impact on the dollar. The US ISM services index of business activity eased from 60.0 to 58.5 in November but readings for new orders and employment rose in the month. Economists had expected the ISM index to ease to 59.0. Any reading above 50.0 indicates expansion in the services sector. In the States later today sees the release of factory orders. Given the sharp rebound in durable goods orders reported in the past week means that the gain in factory orders should also be impressive, now forecast to be up about 2.5% in October.
The Euro strengthened from 1.1687 to 1.1818, before closing at 1.1795 in the New York session. The market was positioned short Euro and stop losses were triggered above 1.1780. The Eurozone services PMI rose to 55.2 in November from 54.9 in October. The French and German PMIs both fell moderately, while the Italian index rose. Also in the Eurozone, retail trade rose 0.5% in October, in line with expectations, However, downward revisions to previous months meant that annual growth rose 0.4%, compared to the expected 1.0%.

My technical strategies ,Euro continues to trade in a volatile 1.1650 to 1.1850 range. The lack of follow-through on both ends has the market perplexed. A decisive break of 1.1680 would signal a test of the downside towards 1.1586, the 38.2% retracement of the broad 0.8227 to 0.3663 advance. A decisive break of the congestion zone at 1.1903 (Oct 3 low) to 1.1907 (50% retracement of 1.2170 to 1.1644) is required to put doubt in the ability of the short-term bear trend''s ability to eventually post a new trend low.
Have a nice trading day bro

From now on,every few day i will post my trading strategis for trading forex. My strategy specialized for trading euoro/us.
At this time bro,The Dollar was largely unchanged against the Euro and Yen in Friday’s London and New York session. The greenback finished lower versus the high yielding currencies. US non-farm payrolls were in line with market expectations. They posted at 210k in November following weakness in September and October on the back of the US hurricanes. The bounce back confirms the underlying strength of the US labour market. The unemployment rate was steady at 5%. Fed Chairman Greenspan was upbeat on economic growth in a speech on Friday, although Fed Yellen reminded the markets that the FOMC intends to change the language of the FOMC statement. The US ISM non-manufacturing index is released later today in the States. The market expects a small fall in November to 59.3. At this level it would remain well above the crucial 50 level which indicates expansion in the sector.
The Euro traded in a range of 1.1663 to 1.1748, before settling near 1.1710 at New York close. ECB President Trichet defended last week’s rate rise indicating that households want price stability. Politicians in the Euroland group have been quick to indicate that the ECB is stifling growth. Euroland ministers at the G7 meeting still show extreme reluctance to tolerate any moves to significant labour or goods market deregulation that would lift growth. In the Eurozone the PMI services is released later today. This has established itself in healthy expansion territory recently and little change in that position is forecast.
Okay,here is my trading strategies,First support is the Nov 28 reaction low at 1.1683. A break this opens the door for 1.1588 (38.2% retracement of the massive 0.8232 to 1.3663 rally). Any near-term recoveries will struggle at 1.1801 (top of congestion from Tuesday) to 1.1812 (61.8% retracement since Monday''s 1.1903 high) resistance zone. Base on your experience bro,take your decision.

The Dollar lifted against Euro and Yen overnight after the ECB watered down expectations of further rate hikes. The Dollar weakened versus the commodity –currencies which rose against the greenback in response to firmer metals prices. US data was supportive for the dollar, with manufacturing ISM steady at firm levels and jobless claims better than expected. The PCE deflator was lower than expected as it rose by just 0.1% in October. The US ISM manufacturing index eased from 59.1 to 58.1 in November. This was close to the market expectation of 58.0. Overall then it was the familiar theme of strong data and benign inflation that has helped the dollar most of the year. In the US today, US non-farm payrolls are expected to resume their pre-hurricane trend in November. A strong monthly increase of 215,000 is expected.

The Euro traded in a narrow range in London as the market waited for the ECB rate announcement. As expected the ECB raised rates by 25 basis points and the Euro actually fell. The Euro traded to a low of 1.1692 from a high of 1.1802. The reason for the fall was when ECB President Trichet said during his press conference that there was no plan for further tightening. Data released yesterday prior to the ECB announcement supported rate expectations, with the Euro area manufacturing PMI improving fractionally to 52.8 from 52.7.
my technical commentary,The Euro has slipped back into the range following Monday's surge which fizzled ahead of the cluster of resistance around 1.1903 to 1.1915 and ahead of the 12-week trendline resistance that is today located at 1.1924. A break of the trendline would signal a potential medium term base. The underlying trend remains bearish with key support levels located at 1.1683, Nov 28 low and the more important 1.1644 low, Nov 15 which also marks the 2005 low thus far.Have a nice trading day bro.